Statistics in Forensic Science
We are exploring methods for the development of measurement uncertainty associated with the analysis of a wide range of forensic evidence types and how probability is used to understand the meaning of evidence given different alleged activities.
What we are doing
We are working with partners across the justice space to understand the needs of the community in the use of statistics and probabilities for the interpretation, evaluation and presentation of evidence in the courts.
Why we are doing it
The use of statistical calculations are critical in any scientific work and the same is true in forensic science. Whether it is to calculate measurement uncertainties or likelihood ratios, a transparent methodology is vital.
How we will do it
We are working in partnership with a range of individuals and organisations to develop and publish bespoke application based statistical calculators and other useful tools.
INTERPOL Reports Explorer Published
Paper published:Research trends in forensic science: A scientometric approach to analyze the content of the INTERPOL reviews
Measurement of Uncertainty Calculator Published
Paper published: Measurement uncertainty in quantifying delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) in blood using SPE and LC/MS/MS.
Measurement Uncertainty Calculator (MUCalc)
The Leverhulme Research Centre for Forensic Science Measurement Uncertainty Calculator (MUCalc) is an application for calculating measurement uncertainty in accordance with the standards of International Organization for Standardization ISO/IEC 17025.
This version (v3.1.0) of the software computes uncertainty components for
- method precision
- calibration standard
- sample volume
- calibration curve
With the Calibration Curve assumed to be linear.
If data is uploaded for all components, the Combined Uncertainty is computed using all components. An uncertainty component can be excluded from the Combined Uncertainty by simply not uploading any data for that component.
Once data is uploaded, a step by step computation and details of all formulas used can be accessed by clicking on the respective uncertainty component tab displayed at the left hand side of the screen.
Each uncertainty component has three main tabs
- step by step calculations
Together these give more detailed information about the approach used.
Additionally a Homogeneity Test details calculation for testing whether there is a statistically significant difference between group means of samples using a one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA).
INTERPOL Reports Explorer
The Leverhulme Research Centre for Forensic Science (LRCFS) has published research covering the trends for 10 forensic science evidence types reported within the 14th to 19th INTERPOL International Forensic Science Managers Symposium reports (2004–2019).
The INTERPOL International Forensic Science Managers Symposium (IFSMS) brings together forensic scientists and forensic science managers from across INTERPOL countries to discuss scientific articles, including peer-reviewed publications and conference presentations relating to forensic science every three years. These reports for the individual evidence types are then combined into one final document called the IFSMS review paper.
As part of this research, LRCFS have built a simple free application - the INTERPOL Reports Explorer - that enables users to export reference lists based on keyword searches and is available for anyone to use.
Research trends in forensic science: A scientometric approach to analyze the content of the INTERPOL reviews
Ménard, H, Akinpelu, O, Fiakpui, NA, He, RL, Huxter, S, Jordan, C, Judge, L, King, A, Miller, B, Moggs, SE, Patrascu, C-T, Pearson, T, Seneviratne, MEJ, Timmerman, LE, Haddrill, PR, Klu, JK, Cole, C & Nic Daeid, N 2021, 'Research trends in forensic science: A scientometric approach to analyze the content of the INTERPOL reviews', WIREs Forensic Science.
Measurement uncertainty in quantifying delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) in blood using SPE and LC/MS/MS
Klu, J. K., Officer, J. A., Park, A., Mudie, R., & Nic Daeid, N. (2021). 'Measurement uncertainty in quantifying delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) in blood using SPE and LC/MS/MS' Forensic Science International, 322, .