Binks Institute for Sustainability: An uncertain future for achieving eco-hydrological resilience – investigating systemic impacts of net zero-driven, land-use decisions on Scotland’s water resources

Context

Land use in the future will be greatly influenced by accelerating climate change, the size and timing of our net-zero ambitions, and wider disruptions due to geopolitical events. There is already a surge in private and public sector investments in land, particularly related to re- and afforestation activities to achieve national and organizational net zero ambitions. Accordingly, there is a great potential for land use decisions to be driven by non-environmental dynamics, with insufficient regulatory oversight needed to balance the competing demands for nature protection, carbon sequestration, food production and water resources management. Short-term investment decisions to achieve increasingly urgent net zero deadlines and competition for land may favour the development of forest monocultures of inappropriate tree species, or tree planting on marginal land, such as riparian zones, that can directly impact on water resources. Further, climate change is projected to change seasonality of rainfall patterns, with expected spatial concentrations of “compound hydro-hotspots” (droughts and floods) across Scotland. Climate change will also impact future land capability, potentially increasing demands on marginal or upland areas. Combined, these dynamics present systemic threats to Scotland’s land and water resources.

This project would benefit from several complementary projects as well as contribute to, such as, RESAS JHI-D4-4 Habitat management and restoration and D2-1 Emerging Water Futures, including projections of likely spatial distributions of afforestation and reforestation across Scotland and future impact of drought. This PhD would benefit from not only these projections but also related research on investor behaviour and climate change impacts on forestry in Scotland. 

Aims

To develop policy relevant understanding of the economic, social and environmental drivers of competing land uses, current trajectories and their potential impacts on catchment-level water availability and quality across Scotland.

Methods/Approach

The proposed methods would involve document review to understand government policies related to land use and net zero ambitions, collation of datasets of existing water monitoring (e.g. UK Upland Waters Monitoring Network; Scotland River Temperature Monitoring Network; SEPA Water Quality Archive) for further case study development. Engagement with communities to understand trade-offs in land-use decisions and developing an integrated agent-based systems model to explore a number of future economic, regulatory and land change scenarios (input) and their impact on aquifer and surface water flow and quality (output). 

Potential Impact

The proposed work would have direct relevance for developing Net Zero land policy in the UK, collating supportive evidence for multiple ownership models of land-based carbon sequestration (LBCS) investments and developing a framework for assessing trade-offs in carbon, water, biodiversity and social equity outcomes to meet net zero commitments.

Diversity statement

Our research community thrives on the diversity of students and staff which helps to make the University of Dundee a UK university of choice for postgraduate research. We welcome applications from all talented individuals and are committed to widening access to those who have the ability and potential to benefit from higher education.