Binks Institute for Sustainability: Optical Bistability and snowpack stability in a climate affected world

Many parts of the world rely on a predictable winter snowpack which then melts stably in the spring and summer to provide irrigation for agriculture. The stability of this irrigation source is being challenged by global warming, with local communities using novel solutions such as ice stupas in the Himalaya, but how robust are such techniques to further warming?

 Snow accumulation and snow melt are part of a dynamical nonlinear system, when taking into account heating from the sun, air/ground temperature, ground absorption of sunlight and snow reflectivity. This leads to feedback in the system, making it bistable: snow accumulation does not follow the same dynamics as snow melt. Over a longer timescale this also shows how the temperatures at which glaciers melt are higher than those needed to form them, creating an essentially irreversible melting in many situations.

 In the 1990s much research was done in optical bistability as a method for memory. It is yet to achieve its early promise in that respect, yet this unusual form of optical nonlinearity might be a powerful tool for computational and physical modelling of ice and snow melt in a climate affected world.

 Aims and methods

1. develop simple, cheap physical models in the lab which mimic snow and ice melt and accumulation (such as with paraffin wax or coconut oil)
2. develop computational models dynamical nonlinear systems representing snow melt and accumulation
3. apply methods to understanding data on snow accumulation, snowpack longevity and snowmelt in Scottish mountains using both natural and artificial snow for skiing.
4. apply optical bistability model help understand publicly available data on snow and ice melt.
5. apply model to predict the stability of Haar in the Tay Estuary.
6. investigating predictive abilities of optical bistability as a model for snowpack stability when determining avalanche risk, ski resort snow longevity and ice stupa longevity.

Impact could take the form of improved decision making for

1. avalanche risks with snowpack becoming much more variable throughout the winter (in partnership with the Scottish Avalanche Information Service)
2. when and how to use artificial snow making for the formation of more a more stable snowpack at ski resorts, with Scotland being a model for previously more stable global winter sports locations
3. ice stupa placement, construction and future potential

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