Binks Institute for Sustainability: Climate change impact on design of coastal structures and infrastructure

Oceans, covering 70% of the planet, play a pivotal role in our lives, serving as a major source of energy, food, and a crucial means of transportation. Coastal areas, vulnerable to the ocean impact, have historically hosted the highest concentration of human populations (IPCC, 2016 &2021). Design of coastal structures and infrastructure, such as wind turbines, wave energy devices, marine aquaculture systems, coastal bridges, ports, harbours, and coastal railways and roads, starts with a comprehensive analysis of anticipated environmental loads throughout the project's lifespan. Gaining an accurate understanding of coastal dynamics is essential for designing future structures and infrastructure and evaluating the resilience of current systems in the coming decades.

The coastal dynamics is significantly influenced by climate change, including sea-level rise and the intensification of extreme oceanic events. The global mean sea level rise has experienced a61% increase in recent years, rising from a rate of 2.6 mm/year in the period 1993–2008 to a rate of 4.2 mm/year in the period 2007–2022. Numerous studies indicate a projected sea-level rise of approximately 60 to 90 cm by 2100. This poses two significant challenges for coastal areas: (i) immediate impacts on low-lying unprotected regions, and (ii) deeper water depth and intensified events leading to more extreme storm surges. These surges enable larger nonlinear waves, typically breaking farther offshore, to approach and impact coastal structures and infrastructure. This introduces novel types and magnitudes of ocean loads, previously unaccounted for and not well-understood for future developments. Not designed to withstand such severe loads, the exposed structures and infrastructure collapse, exemplified in Fig. 1.Traditional design approaches of coastal structures, infrastructure and defence systems are not fit for the climate change effects, necessitating a deeper understanding of ocean dynamics in coastal areas amid these climate shifts (IPCC, 2022).

This project aims to develop a model to study the effect of climate change on design of coastal systems by (i) obtaining a realistic understanding of coastal dynamics under extreme oceanic events, (ii) assessing the shortcomings of traditional design approaches under extreme conditions.

A model will be developed based on the Green-Naghdi theory to capture the nonlinear coastal dynamics under extreme conditions, considering the projected sea-level rise and extreme events. The model will then be utilized in four selected sites located at different geographic locations around the UK (facing Atlantic Ocean, North Sea, English Channel and Celtic Sea). Various climate change scenarios will be considered, examining present and future extreme events in 25 and 50 years. Subsequently, a vulnerability assessment will be undertaken, yielding crucial insights into the potential impacts of extreme events on existing structures and infrastructure, and help in building new risk assessment forecasts that would inform the construction of coastal defences. As over two-thirds of major global cities are situated in low-lying coastal areas, the significance of this proposal cannot be overstated.

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