International Journal of Forecasting publication
Published on 3 June 2020
Dr Dooruj Rambaccussing and Dr Andrzej Kwiatkowski have secured publication of their work for the special issue “Text-based data and forecasting” in the International Journal of Forecasting
While most newspapers performed well when forecasting for long range, some newspapers (The Daily Telegraph, The Financial Times, and The Times) emerged as superforecasters across all horizons. They found no evidence supporting improved forecasts for short-term forecasts for inflation over and above those predicted by the Bank of England.
When the variable forecast (for instance inflation) was identified with a corresponding narrative focusing around that particular variable, improvements were noted.