China's weaponisation of critical mineral supplies: history, current status and outlook

Dr Philip Andrews-Speed, Senior Research Fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies and former Director of CEPMLP, delivered a virtual lecture on China’s dominance in critical mineral supply chains. The session was moderated by Dr Ana Bastida, Senior Lecturer at CEPMLP, while Professor Roc Shi, Research Principal at the Australia–China Relations Institute, UTS, participated as a discussant.

Dr Andrews-Speed explained that a mineral's criticality depends on the risk of supply disruption and its economic or security consequences. These vary according to a country's domestic resources, production capacity, and demand. His presentation examined supply chains supporting batteries, wind turbines, and solar panels, alongside the importance of minerals for defence and advanced technologies.

He traced China's advantage to its mineral resources, smelting and refining capabilities, and overseas mining investments. China has prioritised processing industries, supported by expertise in metallurgy and inorganic chemistry and the co-location of related businesses. Relatively low-cost capital, energy, and labour have also contributed to the competitive position of Chinese companies.

Dr Andrews-Speed reviewed China's use of export restrictions, tracing developments from the 2010 dispute with Japan to controls introduced from 2023 on materials including gallium, germanium, and graphite. He also analysed international responses from the West and outlined the challenges of building alternative supply chains. Andrews-Speed also considered the costs of government support, including subsidies, price floors, and stockpiling. Recycling and material substitution offer further options, although China is developing these too and may retain cost advantages.

The discussion was further enriched by Professor Shi’s remarks, which underscored the importance of cooperation with China given its central role in global clean-technology manufacturing. He noted that such cooperation could be structured through an open league model, which entails reciprocal concessions and seeks to promote global efficiency.

The session concluded with a series of questions from participants, addressing the effectiveness of the measures adopted by Western countries, the viability of collaboration as a strategic response, and other related issues. 

(Written by Rinaldi Rinaldi and Mitzy Longa Quiroz, approved by Shawn Mu)