Mike Lonergan

Senior Biostatistician


Mike is currently working within the Chalmers Group, analysing data from the TARDIS dataset on COPD. He is also involved in the MUSIC and INCOGNITO trials.

Previously, he worked within the MRC/ABPI MASTERMIND project which has been investigating the stratification of treatment for Type 2 diabetes.

Before coming to Dundee, he worked in the Sea Mammal Research Unit at the University of St Andrews mainly concentrating on estimating the abundance of UK seal populations.


Mike’s research interests are in the extraction of practically useful and reliable information from numerical data.


His work at SMRU influenced the sections of the Marine (Scotland) Act 2010 concerning the conservation and management of UK seal populations and led to his participation in three Expert Workshops evaluating models and advising the New Zealand government on threats to the New Zealand sea lion population.



Journal papers:

Lonergan, M, Senn, SJ, McNamee, C, Daly, AK, Sutton, R, Hattersley, A, Pearson, E and Pirmohamed, M. (2016) Defining drug response for stratified medicine. Drug Discovery Today http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.drudis.2016.10.016

Farmer, AJ, Rodgers, LR, Lonergan, M, Shields, B, Weedon, MN, Donnelly, L, Holman, RR, Pearson, ER and Hattersley, AT. (2016) Adherence to Oral Glucose-Lowering Therapies and Associations With 1-Year HbA(1c): A Retrospective Cohort Analysis in a Large Primary Care Database. Diabetes Care 39: 2: 258-263 DOI: 10.2337/dc15-1194

Jones AG, Lonergan M, Henley WE, Pearson ER, Hattersley AT, Shields BM (2016) Should Studies of Diabetes Treatment Stratification Correct for Baseline HbA1c? PLoS ONE 11(4):e0152428. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0152428

Hanson, N., Thompson, D., Duck, C., Baxter, J. and Lonergan, M. (2015) Harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) abundance within the Firth of Tay and Eden Estuary, Scotland: recent trends and extrapolation to extinction. Aquatic Conservation: Marine and FreshwaterEcosystems.

Robinson, K.J, Twiss, S.D, Hazon, N., Moss, S., Lonergan, M. and Pomeroy, P.P. (2015) Conspecific recognition and aggression reduction to familiars in newly weaned, socially plastic mammals. Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology 69:8:1383-94. DOI: 10.1007/s00265-015-1952-7.

Boehme, L. , Lonergan, M. and Todd, C.D. (2014) Comparison of gridded sea datasets for marine ecosystem studies. MEPS 516: 7–22.

Lonergan, M. (2014) Modelling beyond data is uninformative: a comment on “State?space modelling reveals proximate causes of harbour seal population declines” by Matthiopoulos et al.Oecologia 175:1063–1067

Lonergan, M. (2014) Data availability constrains model complexity, generality, and utility: a response to Evans et al.TREE 29 (6): 301-2.

Lonergan, M., Duck, C., Moss, S., Morris, C. and Thompson, D. (2013). Rescaling of aerial survey data with information from small numbers of telemetry tags to estimate the size of a declining harbour seal population. Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems.

Todd, C. D., Friedland, K. D., Maclean, J. C., Whyte, B. D., Russell, I. C., Lonergan, M. E. & Morrissey, M. B. 2012. Phenological and phenotypic changes in Atlantic salmon populations in response to a changing climate. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 69, 1686-1698.

Lonergan, M. (2012). Detecting density dependence in recovering seal populations is difficult: a response to Svensson et al. (2011). Ambio 41:219-220.

Lonergan, M. (2012). Insufficient data is available to predict the success of protected areas for the vaquita (Phocoena sinus): a critique of Gerrodette and Rojas-Bracho (2011). Marine Mammal Science.

Lonergan, M. (2012). The targets of management rules for marine mammal populations require justification: a reply to Cooke et al. (2012). Marine Policy.

Lonergan, M., C.D. Duck, D. Thompson, S. Moss, and B. McConnell (2011). British grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) abundance in 2008: an assessment based on aerial counts and satellite telemetry. ICES Journal of Marine Science. 68(10): p. 2201-2209.

Lonergan, M. (2011). "Potential biological removal and other currently used management rules for marine mammal populations: A comparison." Marine Policy 35: 584-589.

Lonergan, M., Thompson, D., Thomas, L. and Duck, C. (2011) “An Approximate Bayesian Method Applied to Estimating the Trajectories of Four British Grey Seal (Halichoerus grypus) Populations from Pup Counts,” Journal of Marine Biology, vol. 2011, Article ID 597424, 7 pages, doi:10.1155/2011/597424

Lonergan, M., A. Hall, H. Thompson, P. M. Thompson, P. Pomeroy and J. Harwood (2010). "Comparison of the 1988 and 2002 phocine distemper epizootics in British harbour seal Phoca vitulina populations." Diseases of Aquatic Organisms 88(3): 183-188.

Thompson, D., C. D. Duck and M. E. Lonergan (2010). "The status of harbour seals (Phoca vitulina)in the United Kingdom." NAMMCO Scientific Publications 8: 117-128.

Cunningham, L., J. M. Baxter, I. L. Boyd, C. D. Duck, M. Lonergan, S. E. Moss and B. McConnell (2009). "Harbour seal movements and haul-out patterns: implications for monitoring and management." Aquatic Conservation-Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems 19(4): 398-407.

Lonergan, M., M. Fedak and B. McConnell (2009). "The effects of interpolation error and location quality on animal track reconstruction." Marine Mammal Science 25(2): 275-282.

Bernal, M., L. Ibaibarriaga, A. L. de Lanzos, M. E. Lonergan, C. Hernandez, C. Franco, I. Rasines, L. Valdes and D. L. Borchers (2008). "Using multinomial models to analyse data from Iberian sardine egg incubation experiments: a comparison with traditional techniques." ICES Journal of Marine Science 65(1): 51-59

Lindgren, A., C. Mascolo, M. Lonergan and B. McConnell (2008). "Seal-2-Seal: A Delay-Tolerant Protocol for Contact Logging in Wildlife Monitoring Sensor Networks." 2008 Fifth Ieee International Conference on Mobile Ad-Hoc and Sensor Systems, Vols 1 and 2: 321-327.

Todd, C. D., S. L. Hughes, C. T. Marshall, J. C. Maclean, M. E. Lonergan and E. M. Biuw (2008). "Detrimental effects of recent ocean surface warming on growth condition of Atlantic salmon." Global Change Biology 14(5): 958-970.

Ibaibarriaga, L., M. Bernal, L. Motos, A. Uriarte, D. L. Borchers, M. E. Lonergan and S. N. Wood (2007). "Characterization of stage-classified biological processes using multinomial models: a case study of anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) eggs in the Bay of Biscay." Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 64(3): 539-553.

Lonergan, M. (2007). "A response to Durban et al. (2005): Multisite mark-recapture for cetaceans." Marine Mammal Science 23(3): 721-729.

Lonergan, M., C. D. Duck, D. Thompson, B. L. Mackey, L. Cunningham and I. L. Boyd (2007). "Using sparse survey data to investigate the declining abundance of British harbour seals." Journal of Zoology 271(3): 261-269.

Thompson, P., S. Ingram, M. Lonergan, S. Northridge, A. Hall and B. Wilson (2007). "Climate change causing starvation in harbour porpoises?" Biology Letters 3(5): 533-534.

Todd, C. D., P. J. C. Phelan, B. E. Weinmann, A. R. Gude, C. Andrews, D. M. Paterson, M. E. Lonergan and G. Miron (2006). "Improvements to a passive trap for quantifying barnacle larval supply to semi-exposed rocky shores." Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 332(2): 135-150.

Pomeroy, P. P., J. A. Hammond, A. J. Hall, M. Lonergan, C. D. Duck, V. J. Smith and H. Thompson (2005). "Morbillivirus neutralising antibodies in Scottish grey seals Halichoerus grypus: assessing the effects of the 1988 and 2002 PDV epizootics." Marine Ecology-Progress Series 287: 241-250.

Thompson, D., M. Lonergan and C. Duck (2005). "Population dynamics of harbour seals Phoca vitulina in England: monitoring growth and catastrophic declines." Journal of Applied Ecology 42(4): 638-648.

Lonergan, M. and J. Harwood (2003). "The potential effects of repeated outbreaks of phocine distemper among harbour seals: a response to Harding et al.(2002)." Ecology Letters 6(10): 889-893.

Lonergan, M. and J. Travis (2003). "On the selective advantage of suicide." Journals of Gerontology Series a-Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences 58(9): 775-775.

Lonergan, M. and C. B. Jones (2001). "An iterative displacement method for conflict resolution in map generalization." Algorithmica 30(2): 287-301.

Cluttonbrock, T. H. and M. E. Lonergan (1994). "Culling Regimes And Sex-Ratio Biases In Highland Red Deer." Journal of Applied Ecology 31(3): 521-527.

Grenfell, B. T., M. E. Lonergan and J. Harwood (1992). "Quantitative Investigations Of The Epidemiology Of Phocine Distemper Virus (Pdv) In European Common Seal Populations." Science of the Total Environment 115(1-2): 15-29.

SelSelected Reports

Bradshaw, C., Haddon, M. and Lonergan M (2013) Review of models and data underpinning the management of fishing-related mortality of New Zealand sea lions (Phocarctos hookeri), in the SQU6T trawl fishery. Unpublished report to The New Zealand Ministry of Primary Industries.

Lonergan, M.E. (2013) Patterns in the numbers of seals counted during boat based surveys of Strangford Lough and Strangford Narrows (1993-2012). SMRU Ltd Report to MCT and the SeaGen EMP Science Group. January 2013 (unpublished).

Lonergan, M. and Thompson, D. (2012) Harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) abundance within the Firth of Tay and Eden Estuary Special Area of Conservation: recent trends and extrapolation to extinction. Report to SNH.

McConnell, B., Lonergan, M. & Dietz, R. (2012) Interactions between seals and offshore wind farms.The Crown Estates : The Crown Estates.

Northridge, S., Kingston, A. R. , Mackay, A. & Lonergan, M. (2011) Bycatch of Vulnerable Species : Understanding the Process and Mitigating the Impacts. Final report to Defra project MF1003. Defra.

Thompson, D., S. Bexton, A. Brownlow, D. Wood, T. Patterson, K. Pye, M. Lonergan and R. Milne (2010). Report on recent seal mortalities in UK waters caused by extensive lacerations.

Northridge, S. , Gordon, J. , Booth, C. , Calderan, S. , Cargill, A. , Coram, A. J. , Gillespie, D. M. , Lonergan, M. & Webb, A. (2010). Assessment of the impacts and utility of acoustic deterrent devices. Scottish Aquaculture Research Forum.

Duck, C, Black, A, Lonergan, M & Mackey, B. (2006) The number and distribution of marine mammals in the Fall of Warness, Orkney July 2005-July 2006, Final Report for Aurora Environmental. August 2006.

Lonergan, M (2006) Use of the Strangford Narrows visual observations to detect changes in seal abundances around the proposed Seagen turbine, Final Report to Royal Haskoning, July 2006.