Maths predicts divorce

"Maths can predict divorce" says a top academic attending a Mathematical Biology Conference at the University of Dundee this week.

Professor James Murray from the University of Washington has formulated a mathematical model that takes data from couple's conversations, converts it to algebraic terms, and works out how likely the couple are to stay together. Much to the Professor's own surprise, the model is 94% successful in predicting the fate of a couple's marriage."

James Murray explains: "We bring couples who are planning to get married into the lab and assess their conversation for 15 minutes. We use a scoring system on their reactions and represent their reactions with algebraic terms. Against time evolution we can work out if they are likely to stay together or if they are more likely to divorce."

It is difficult to believe that maths can predict the fate of your marriage and I was inclined to disbelieve it to when my colleague, a psychologist called John Gottman suggested the project to me. However, it does work and a 94% accuracy rate proves it.

Maths provides a language for interpreting the human interaction. It quantifies one person's effect on the other. And, it is not difficult. The maths we are using could be done by secondary school pupils with basic algebra. Once they are shown the basic model, they insert their data and make the simple calculation."

Professor Murray continues: "I think using maths in psychology is a filed of study which could boom in the next few years. If we can apply mathematics and get such accurate results on marriage why not try using maths on jury decisions, date rape, and violence in drug users. Mathematics was the ancient and is the future method in problem solving."

The University of Dundee has staged a coup in bringing this prestigious meeting to Scotland - the first time the 230 delegates have met outside North America.

As well as looking at possible uses for maths in psychology, delegates are discussing applying mathematics to a number of current biological problems such as modelling cancer growth and invasion, theoretical immunology, bioinformatics and ecology and evolutionary biology.

The four day conference stages 7 plenary talks by international speakers, 9 minisymposia with a total of 27 talks, 102 contributed talks and 50 poster presentations.

Photo opportunity 7.30pm, Friday 8 August, West Park Conference Centre, Perth Road, Dundee.

By Jenny Marra, Head of Press 01382 344910 j.m.marra@dundee.ac.uk