upper navigation barSearch the CEPMLP Internet JournalAn overview of this web siteContact UsCEPMLP Homepage
lower navigation barJournal HomepageCEPMLP Homepage
 Internet Journal Volume 12 : Abstract 1 [navigation buttons]UpNext Page
the journal
j_top
j_bottom

[ view full article | download PDF version with footnotes (161 KB) ]

ATTRACTING FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FOR RUSSIA'S MODERNIZATION
Battling Against The Odds

by Mehmet Ögütçü
OECD-Russia Investment Roundtable, 19 June 2002, Saint Petersburg, Russia

Overview

At the opening of this new millennium, Russia looms on the horizon as an immense opportunity for investors, domestic and foreign alike - but for actual investments to flow and capital flight to be reversed, much will have to change. There are increasingly positive signals in this direction. Russia is a vast country stretching across Europe and Asia, possessing spectacular wealth in the form of exploitable natural resources, technology, a large, skilled workforce, and nearly 150 million consumers whose needs are endless. It is a country whose goals are to move towards a market system based on private capital investment and enterprise and to integrate rapidly into the world economy. Indeed, it has rapidly privatised the bulk of the assets of former state enterprises (although in many cases with a lack of transparency and fairness that has created an unfortunate legacy). It has also spawned hundreds of thousands of new small and medium-sized private enterprises, which have formed the backbone of its economy.

There is an increased interest from foreign investors in the Russian economy, which has seen a continuous growth over the past three years – a turnaround after a decade of declines in the 1990s. It has been quite a shock for many to see how quickly the Russian economy has rebounded from the 1998 financial crisis. On the back of strong oil prices, real GDP growth in 2002 is expected to reach 4 percent. The governmental interim scenarios currently suggest growth in the range 3.4 to 5.6 percent for 2003-05. President Putin instructed the government to step up efforts to further increase the annual growth rate so that Russia could catch up Portugal over the next 10 to 15 years. In all the scenarios, the world oil price assumption plays an important role in view of the fact that Russia is the world's second largest oil exporter. Otherwise, growth is only expected to accelerate if reforms are implemented, and there would also be a lag before the effects of reforms would materialise.

President Putin brought political stability, a welcome change for investors after the rotating governments in the final years of Boris Yeltsin's presidency. The state is consolidating its control functions, and political and macroeconomic risk factors have been significantly reduced. The consolidation of the Federal Government's authority in the regions (via the Presidential Representatives in the Federal Districts) has regional legislation into line with federal law on most issues, thereby overcoming the fragmentation of the national economic territory while reducing administrative barriers and risks. President Putin called on the Russian elite to bring money abroad back to Russia at low tax rates offered, warning that offshore accounts would become increasingly difficult to use as the international community tightens rules governing their use.

A recent positive development for Russia has been the recognition of Russia by the EU and the USA as the ‘market economy'. This should serve it well on several fronts, including providing a boost to Russian exports, relieving the country's anti-dumping duties (particularly on steel), and paving a way for its entry to the World Trade Organisation (WTO). Russia's new status will also improve general investor sentiment toward the country.

However, what has been achieved to date is not in itself enough to guarantee an improvement in the investment climate and a long-term revival of the economy. Despite a general economic recovery, problems of a strategic nature remain. Until Russia sees stable growth in the output of competitive products, it will be too early to speak of a stable economic growth pattern. That applies not only to the raw materials sectors, but also to secondary industries and services, and it will require massive investment into industrial plants and equipment, the widespread deployment of new technologies, and an improvement in economic management in practically all sectors of the economy. That is the real essence of the Government's task of modernising the economy, as laid out in the Gref Programme for 2000- 2010.

Mehmet Ögütçü
(added 09 July 2002)

Go to top of page


Contact Us

Copyright © 2000 The Centre for Energy, Petroleum and Mineral Law and Policy. All Rights Reserved. Site Design: Thom Westran

[navigation buttons]Next Page