Volume 10 : Abstract 10

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The following paper was first presented in Cyprus in 1997. The book Oil and Islam - Social and Economic Issues by Øystein Noreng was first published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. in June 1997
(ISBN 0471971537)

OIL AND ISLAM

by Øystein Noreng
email : Oystein.Noreng@bi.no

Misuse of money causing social and political tensions.

The theme.

The purpose of this paper is to explore the possible links between the region's oil experience over the past decades and the surge of politically radical movements referring to Islam in the Middle East and North Africa. The critical factors are the sudden rise and the subsequent decline of the oil revenues. In the 1970s and early 1980s, the Middle East and North Africa appeared as exceptionally successful in economic and social matters. Revenues soared and social conditions improved rapidly. In the 1990s, with some exceptions, the region appears as a resounding economic and social failure. Per capita income is falling and social conditions are deteriorating quickly. There are too few jobs for the increasing young population, so that unemployment is rising quickly. The Middle East and North Africa make up the only one of the world's major regions unable to feed its population, which is growing rapidly. Hence food supplies and nutrition standards are under a stronger economic threat than elsewhere. This has onerous political implications.

At the same time, military expenditure is persistently high. In many Middle Eastern and North African countries the military and internal security seem to have the priority over civilian tasks. In brief, arms purchases in many cases seem to have a stronger budgetary position than do food imports. Even if oil revenues in a fairly recent past provided tremendous wealth, there is no hope that oil alone can secure future prosperity. The oil exporters of the Middle East and North Africa evidently do not manage the transition into more diversified economies, supplementing oil and gas with other sources of income. As public funds based on oil run out, governments are unable to attract or stimulate private investment. Hence they seem to be running into ever more serious economic difficulties, with steadily more severe social strains and potentially ominous political repercussions.

Indeed, the countdown to the post-oil era is being forced upon the Middle Eastern and North African oil exporters, but so far the governments seem unable or unwilling to adapt. The question is how this unfortunate development could have taken place. Did it occur in spite of an exceptional endowment in petroleum resources or because of the resource endowment?

Anyway, the outcome is increasing political unrest, with religious references. In this context, these movements will be denominated as Islamist. In this perspective, Islamism represents the use of religious references to legitimise political grievances as a moral right. Following this perspective, there are no definite political institutions or economic or social policies prescribed by Islam, but the interpretations and uses of Islam should be analysed with reference to their proper historical, economic and social context. The background for the recent surge in Islamism in the Middle East and North Africa is certainly not only to be found in economic and social problems. It also represents a manifestation of cultural and national identity in opposition to the west, the former colonial or semi-colonial masters. Serious economic problems and the degradation of the social situation do, however, provide additional strength the Islamist surge. These issues are related to the oil experience, but they have been largely ignored in the West.

Øystein Noreng
Handelshøyskolen BI
Norway
email : Oystein.Noreng@bi.no
(added to 07 March 2002)

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