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THE ASIAN ENERGY FACTOR. Myths and Dilemmas of Energy, Security and the Pacific Future by Robert A. Manning, Palgrave. US $45.00
Energy is rarely far from the front-line of issues for strategic thinkers. Energy is frequently paired with the words "shortage", "security" and "conflict". In the 1970s and 1980s the focus of such concerns was the Middle East. In the 1990s attention switched to Asia – a region of rapidly growing economies thirsty for energy, some of which were run by governments with a strong nationalistic outlook and unpredictable foreign and military policies. The scene appeared set for conflicts between the countries of Asia as well as between this region and "the west" over dwindling supplies of oil and gas.
These fears have triggered an outpouring of literature from academic institutions and think-tanks (mainly American) during the last few years. Some of these have been alarmist and superficial, whilst others have involved extensive and detailed reviews of the subject. Robert Manning has provided a readable account, which draws on this literature and provides a synthesis accessible to the informed layman as well as useful to the energy or foreign policy specialist. But more than this, Manning has gone back to basics and questioned the assumptions on which much of the pontification has been based. His thesis is that energy can be as much a catalyst for cooperation in Asia as a source of conflict, and that which direction things go depend on the attitudes of the players both in East Asia and outside.
The book can be considered in two parts. The first part, Chapters 1-4, debunks a number of myths, whilst the second comprises a number of country studies. Manning's greatest contribution to clarifying the issues in the energy and politics debate lies in the first four chapters where he systematically examines the myths of energy security. In a wide-ranging historical review he reminds us how the world has always been dogged by doom-mongers, who are invariably proven wrong. One of the reasons that they are proved wrong is that mankind has found a way around the problem; so maybe doom-mongers have their use. Then he successfully demolishes the still-fashionable myth that the world is about to run out of oil and gas. As an ex-oil industry geologist I could not agree more. "Reserves" depend on technology, investment and price. These three have conspired to sustain the rate of new discoveries, allow enhanced recovery from existing fields, and substantially raise the level of non-OPEC oil production.
He then makes quick work of putting the "gigantic" resources of the Caspian into perspective before turning his attention to two contrasting views of Asia's growing energy needs. One holds that energy is a strategic commodity and that an imminent shortage, at least in Asia, will necessarily trigger conflict. Most of the world's oil and much of its gas lies in the Middle East, a perennially unstable region. Furthermore, all ship-borne trade from the Gulf to East Asia passes through sea-lanes which are easily blockaded. In order to secure their supplies of energy, certain Asian countries will be obliged to use a range of economic, political and military measures to secure their energy imports. The opposing view holds that markets, privatisation, capital investment and technological advance will solve all problems, and that these mechanisms can be supplemented by specific co-operative measures between the countries of Asia themselves, as well as with the oil-exporting countries.
Needless to say, Manning supports the second approach but he shows that a great deal of work is required to ensure that the energy future of Asia does indeed move towards cooperation rather than conflict.
Philip Andrews-Speed Director of Studies Centre for Energy, Petroleum and Mineral Law and Policy University of Dundee, Scotland (added 16 April 2001)
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